Complexity and Multi-dimensionality of Coupled Systems
Below is the last slide of dissertation defense, summarizing my Ph.D. research.
Migration in Somalia
I am developing an agent-based model to capture internal displacement (IDP) and international migration in Somalia. As a part of MURI project (link), this is an extension of my proof-of-concept model (Oh et al. in preparation; more information will be soon provided). This study currently considers precipitation (CHIRPS dataset) and social network to predict IDPs between Somalia regions (PRMN dataset from UNHCR).
Left figure is a preliminary result. I compared observed and simulated IDP flow ranks in 2016 (started from 2014). I used Spearman's rank correlation coefficient between the two. I found that precipitation and social ties can substitute each other.
This research is right at the starting stage and requires much more improvements:
Additional drivers (e.g., conflict)
Simulation for 2017 and 2018
Incorporating international migration to the model
More connection to the stylized facts of migration (Griffith et al. in preparation)
More ongoing research will be updated soon!